Publications

The efficiency of 119 electric cooperatives in the Philippines from 1990-2002 is analyzed using a stochastic frontier model augmented with spatial-temporal terms, addressing the underestimation of technical efficiency usually encountered among maximum-likelihood based methods. The model is also robust to the choice of environmental variables that will be included in the inefficiency equation provided that the
spatial distance measure substantially captures the efficiency-enhancing factors. The average of estimated technical efficiency is 0.86. The growth in technical efficiency of 1- 2% per year is explained by the slow adjustment process in the operation of the
cooperatives lacking the medium to feedback production outcomes in the previous year to
their operation cycle in the following year. Medium-sized cooperatives need to organize
for strategic competitive advantage and to facilitate attainment of production efficiency.

In Japan, the past few decades revealed the vulnerability of wood-framed residential buildings to strong earth- quakes. The Kobe earthquake in 1995 caused tremendous loss of lives resulting from the collapse and damage of such structures that significantly affected economic condition. This disaster motivated many researchers to study the mecha- nisms of collapse of engineering structures in order to prevent further loss of lives in the future. In this paper, an innova- tive methodology in simulating the dynamic response of wood-framed buildings, for purposes of seismic performance assessment and retrofitting, is presented. The proposed method, which can simulate inelastic behavior of structures, is ca- pable of showing realistic progressive collapse mechanisms and accurate seismic response of structures. The sequence of analyses and results in the form of computer animations are used to help building owners gain a better understanding of the seismic performance of their buildings before and after the structural reinforcement. Applications to real wood-framed residential buildings were used to show the effectiveness of the methodology in seismic performance assessment as well as retrofit plan development.

Rural poverty is linked to the exposure of the households to economic vulnerability through their chronic dependence on agriculture in income-generation. A starting point in mitigating this vulnerability would be a comprehensive accessibility improvement that substantially reduces transportation cost and isolation of the rural communities from basic welfare services. An advocacy campaign and/or incentive system that will encourage private firms to establish operations in rural areas will be needed. More private establishments in rural areas will not only shield the households against exposure to vulnerability but will also serve as a catalyst for microenterprise development.
Sustainable rural development will follow provided that there is an ample corporate social responsibility program among these firms to avert widening of inequality. A natural resource management strategy will also be needed for ecological integrity.
Participation is crucial in development project identification to minimize wastage of
resources and possibly reallocate it to other productive uses. Provision of rural roads
should be bundled properly with support services and capacity-building activities. This
can enhance the demand for other infrastructure and services resulting to a dynamic evolution of essential elements in the pursuit of rural development. Bundles of
intervention improve production efficiency of rural households at the different stages of
production in-farm and/or off-farm.
Rural development interventions should pay special attention to the more vulnerable
segment, the farmers especially, with the goal of gradually detaching them from complete dependence on agriculture without putting their food security at risk. Public investment on infrastructure and user’s fees can complement each other in the continuous provision of new infrastructure and maintenance of the existing infrastructure,
for a sustainable track towards rural development. The socialized user’s fee system is a potential tool for preventing the widening income disparity in rural areas. It is important however to carefully choose a suitable and acceptable basis for the socialized user’s fee rates. An incorrect choice can be perceived as a disincentive for access or might stimulate distrust among a segment of the rural society regarding the sincerity of the government in pushing rural development. This might eventually create more social issues rather than bridging inequality.

We assess the forecasting abilities of transfer function model and spatial autoregression, along with the possible benefits from deseasonalization. When the deterministic seasonal components are set aside, the structural dynamics in a time series model of the remaining stochastic components are better understood, hence empirically fitted well, facilitating forecasting. However, a model that best incorporates the interactions among different agents of seasonality is still superior to that of the model that only sets aside seasonality, not making it an integral part of the model. When there is a  pronounced, stable seasonality usually
occurring when deterministic seasonality dominates the stochastic seasonality,
deseasonalization becomes beneficial for forecasting in transfer function models.
Spatial autoregression provides an alternative modeling framework when there is a constraint on available explanatory variables. Spatial and temporal autoregressions can account for
spatial externalities and temporal accumulations that explain a large part of the fluctuations in a time series forecasting situation. Using rice and corn production data for the Philippines, forecast errors can be reduced by at least half with the inclusion of a spatial autoregressive term in the model.

Mapapansin na sa mga naunang kasaysayan ng Filipinas, ang tuon ng pansin ay ang mga dokumentong magagamit—kolonyal ang katangian at sumasalamin sa kamalayan ng mga kolonyalista. Kung makikita man ang pananaw ng mga Filipino, karaniwan ay mula sa punto de bista lamang ng mga ilustrado na nagtatangkang magpasikat sa mga kolonyalista at ipakita na ang mga Filipino ay kapantay nila at karapat-dapat para sa mga kolonisador sa kanilang teritoryo at sa kanilang sukatan. Marami pa rin sa mga aklat ng kasaysayan ang nagpapahayag ng ganitong pagkiling—ang mga Filipino ayon sa sukat ng “pormal” at “tanggap” na sukatan ng hulmahang Europeo. Maunawaan ang ganitong gawi sa dahilang nais ipakita ng mga Filipino na sila ay dapat na seryosong mabigyan ng tulad na mga karapatan at pribilehiyo na tinatamasa ng mga kolonisador. Ang pag-aaral sa Cofradia de San Jose at sa mga tala nito, lalo na ang mga isinulat ni Apolonario dela Cruz, ay nagbibigay ng perspektibong Filipino sa kaniyang pisikal at espiritwal na daigdig, sa kaniyang nakaraan at sa kaniyang pagkatao.

An agricultural growth model is proposed to verify the agricultural convergence hypothesis among some Asian countries following the method of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) and Sala-i-Martin (1996). Conditional convergence of agriculture is facilitated by foreign aid intended for agriculture and spatial externalities associated with foreign trade. However, foreign aid for agriculture may not serve the purpose of mobilizing resources for an environment conducive to development, but rather may function as a substitute to public  expenditure for the sector.

An agricultural growth model is proposed to verify the agricultural convergence hypothesis among some Asian countries following the method of Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) and Sala-i-Martin (1996). Conditional convergence of agriculture is facilitated by foreign aid intended for agriculture and spatial externalities associated with foreign trade. However,
foreign aid for agriculture may not serve the purpose of mobilizing resources for an
environment conducive to development, but rather may function as a substitute to public
expenditure for the sector.

This paper explores the complex process of rural development at the community level in the Philippines. From the complementation among the essential elements of rural development (social infrastructure, physical infrastructure, and financial services), linkages are traced towards the attainment of goals. Roads initiate the delivery of other physical infrastructure to the usually isolated rural community. Roads also facilitate the delivery of capacity building activities and community organizing, which empower the community. An empowered community, in turn, will be able to stride a sustainable path towards development. Although development assistance requires a certain density of a bundle to exhibit an effect in
a community, expansion of the coverage from the current rate will be needed. Without expansive coverage of a comprehensive package of interventions similar to those provided through official development assistance, manifestation of rural development may be delayed further. A comprehensive package of development projects may be identified and formulated through a participatory approach. Substantial funding that will enable both intensity of intervention and wider coverage will be more efficient than a project implemented in phases spread over time covering different communities. This simultaneous implementation will
generate rural development constructs and an expected multiplier effect, both of which are long-term outcomes. This effort will require efficient coordination and synchronized implementation of various development assistance intended for the rural sector.

This paper explores the complex process of rural development at the community level in the Philippines. From the complementation among the essential elements of rural development (social infrastructure, physical infrastructure, and financial services), linkages are traced towards the attainment of goals. Roads initiate the delivery of other physical infrastructure to the usually isolated rural community. Roads also facilitate the delivery of capacity building activities and community organizing, which empower the community. An empowered community, in turn, will be able to stride a sustainable path towards development. Although development assistance requires a certain density of a bundle to exhibit an effect in a community, expansion of the coverage from the current rate will be needed. Without expansive coverage of a comprehensive package of interventions similar to those provided
through official development assistance, manifestation of rural development may be delayed further. A comprehensive package of development projects may be identified and formulated through a participatory approach. Substantial funding that will enable both intensity of intervention and wider coverage will be more efficient than a project implemented in phases spread over time covering different communities. This simultaneous implementation will
generate rural development constructs and an expected multiplier effect, both of which are long-term outcomes. This effort will require efficient coordination and synchronized implementation of various development assistance intended for the rural sector.

BACKGROUND:

Until 1998, iodine deficiency was a public health problem in the Philippines. A law entitled "An Act Promoting Salt Iodization Nationwide" (ASIN) has been passed and implemented by the government to eliminate iodine deficiency. The contribution of salt iodization, as well as dietary, health, and environmental factors, to improving the intellectual performance of Filipino schoolchildren remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVE:

The objectives of the study were to determine the relationship between iodine status and levels of psychomotor and cognitive performance in first-grade children aged 6 to 10 years, and to examine the extent to which dietary, biochemical, health, and environmental factors contribute to children's mental performance.

METHODS:

Two hundred ninety children in six classroom sections from a public school in Manila were examined by measurement of urinary iodine excretion (UIE) and thyroid palpation. The median UIE level for each section was determined. Sixty-five children classified as iodine deficient (UIE < 90 microg/L with grade 1 goiter, n = 34) and non-iodine deficient (UIE > 100 microg/L without goiter, n = 31) were given psychomotor and cognitive function tests (Bender-Gestalt and Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices). Scores from the two tests were used to determine each child's general ability percentile rank. Other variables examined were dietary intake (% RDA of nutrients ingested based on two nonconsecutive 24-hour recalls); deficiencies in iron, vitamin A, and selenium; parasitic infection; coliform contamination of drinking water; household use of iodized salt; illness in the past 2 weeks; and wasting and stunting.

RESULTS:

Children whose general ability scores were at or above the 50th percentile had higher UIE levels, but the relationship was not significant. Children from sections with higher median UIE levels had higher percentile ranks for general ability (p = .002). Backward logistic regression showed that the variance in deficient and adequate mental performance was explained by dietary intakes that met > or = 80% of the RDA for energy, protein, thiamin, and riboflavin; the use of iodized salt; child's iodine status; and stunting (R2 = .520, p = .0016). Higher class median UIE was associated with better psychomotor and cognitive performance in children who were tested. Factors that contributed to better performance include higher intakes of energy, protein, thiamin, and riboflavin; household use of iodized salt; normal iodine status; and absence of stunting or chronic malnutrition.

CONCLUSIONS:

Salt iodization, accompanied by adequate intakes of energy, protein, and foods rich in thiamin and riboflavin, can contribute to improved mental performance in Filipino schoolchildren. Longer-term factors that can contribute to improved performance are achievement of normal iodine status and elimination of protein-energy malnutrition.

A spatial–temporal model is postulated, possibly allowing for spatial units of irregular shapes. An estimation procedure that imbeds the Cochranne–Orcutt procedure into the backfitting algorithm is proposed. Using agricultural data, the method yields superior forecast to some common approaches.