Jiyi Jang, Sang-Soo Baek, Daehyun Kang, Yongeun Park, Mayzonee Ligaray, Seungho Baek, Jinyong Choi, Bum Soo Park, Myoung-In Lee, and Kyung Hwa Cho. 5/2024. “
Insights and machine learning predictions of harmful algal bloom in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 459, Pp. 142515.
Publisher's Version Abstract The increase in harmful algal blooms (HABs) globally has been linked to climate change and anthropogenic activities such as agricultural runoff and urbanization. This study focused on analyzing the impact of these factors on HAB occurrences in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, identifying influential factors, and predicting future HAB events. For this study, random forest and numerical modeling were employed, with datasets encompassing physical and chemical properties of river water, seawater, and precipitation to assess the impact of discharge on HABs. Additionally, climate change scenarios derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were employed to predict future HAB occurrences, supported by a sensitivity analysis to identify influential factors affecting HAB occurrence. This study demonstrated that the growth rate and occurrence of HABs in the East China Sea (ECS) and Korean coastal waters (KCW) distinctively increased in July and November after the operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). It is likely affected by the decreasing discharge from the Yangtze River (YR) owing to the operation of the TGD. Using the Random Forest model, future HAB events were predicted in good agreement with observations. The sensitivity results revealed that environmental properties, such as precipitation, water temperature, and salinity are major features affecting the HAB trends in both the KCW and YR basins. Moreover, based on the random forest model and climate change scenarios, HAB events were predicted to increase in frequency in July, September, and October. Therefore, the findings can contribute to preventing biological pollution of the ocean system in the ECS and KCW by supporting efficient environmental management.
The Mananga River in the Philippines has been classified as a Class A river in 1997. Since then, the river has significantly deteriorated due to pollution, especially in the downstream area around Talisay in the Cebu region. In this study, the water quality parameters – namely, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), and total suspended solids (TSS) were assessed using principal component analysis (PCA). Water quality data were obtained from the Department of Environmental and Natural Resources–Environmental Management Bureau Region 7. The water samples were collected on a quarterly basis from 2016–2019. The effect of weather conditions on water quality and significant relationships between the water quality parameters were determined. In addition, the comparison of water quality in each sampling station was investigated. Results show that about 84.3% of the total variance in water quality can be attributed to two significant principal component scores. Evident correlations were observed such as DO and BOD are negatively correlated, whereas a positive correlation exists between DO to RH and wind speed, BOD to temperature, and TSS to wind speed. Furthermore, negative correlations are observed between DO to temperature and wind direction, BOD to rainfall, and TSS to wind direction and rainfall. In the overall analysis of the results, the heavier the influence of a variable, the more likely it is to contribute to affecting the water quality. Therefore, this can alter the overall distribution within the plots and the correlations among the variables. The findings are a predictive measure of future changes and trends in the Mananga River. Therefore, the results of the present work will be used in environmental monitoring, environmental management, and assistance for the rehabilitation of the Mananga River using PCA.